CLIMATE-INDUCED SHOCKS AND THE PATH TO SDG 2: ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF FOOD SECURITY AND POVERTY DYNAMICS IN NIGERIA
Abstract
This study investigates the socio-economic repercussions
of climate variability on food security and poverty levels
in Nigeria from 2021 to 2025. Utilizing an Autoregressive
Distributed Lag (ARDL) framework and descriptive trend
analysis, the research evaluates the longitudinal impact
of temperature anomalies and rainfall volatility on the
national Food Production Index and Poverty Headcount.
Econometric results reveal a significant long-term
equilibrium relationship; specifically, a 1% increase in
temperature variation is statistically associated with a
2.45% increase in the poverty headcount. Regression
analysis further identifies declining agricultural output as
the primary transmission mechanism for household
vulnerability, with a negative and significant coefficient
of -1.120 (p < 0.001), indicating that agricultural
productivity remains the most potent tool for poverty
mitigation. The existence of a "climate-poverty trap" is
empirically evidenced by the regression of SDG 2 targets during the 2022 and 2025 flood cycles, which contributed
to a projected poverty headcount of 46% by late 2025.
The study concludes that achieving "Zero Hunger" (SDG
2) necessitates a paradigm shift from traditional rain-fed
subsistence to Climate-Smart Agriculture (CSA).
This article is available as a PDF download
Published in AFRICAN JOURNAL OF ORGANIZATIONAL PERSPECTIVES AND ECONOMY
ISSN: 988-47877
This article appears in our peer-reviewed academic journal
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